This emergence data describes the percentage of the newly planted crops that are emerging from the soil.Īlthough the delay does not necessarily lead to lower crop yields, it can increase the risk of issues with drought, heat, and harvesting later in the season. These conditions are highly unfavorable for farmers to begin planting activities, which caused a delayed start to the growing season – roughly about 15 days on average when looking at emergence data from the USDA over the same state (Fig. Spring started with extraordinarily wet conditions, which can be seen from the Soil Water Content data (Fig. We will have a deeper look at this year’s variability in the Planetary Variables over Illinois, one of the top producing states for corn and soybeans. Next, let’s dig into the factors that influence our forecasts. Vegetation Optical Depth – A microwave-based vegetation index related to the water content of vegetation, or simply, an indication of vegetation density. Land Surface Temperature – A measurement of the radiative skin temperature of the surface of the earth at night time.Soil Water Content – A measurement of the volume of water contained in the first 5 cm of the soil.national corn and soybeans yield forecasts are based on some of our unique set of remotely-sensed Planetary Variables including: To understand what might be behind these trends, it’s helpful to first understand the underlying data archive that powers our statistical forecasting model. The root-mean-square error (rmse) is a measure of the model uncertainty, by calculating the mean absolute differences between the yield values predicted by the model and the final yield values for the historical runs of 2003-2021.įigure 1b, Time series image of the US National 2022 soybeans prediction throughout the growing season.įigure 1c, US national corn yield forecasts in September from both Planet and the USDA, as compared to final yields.įigure 1d, US national soybeans yield forecasts in September from both Planet and the USDA, as compared to final yields.īreaking down how yield forecasting works Therefore, to put these Planet predictions in the right perspective, it is important to understand its fundamentals.įigure 1a, Time series image of the US National 2022 corn prediction throughout the growing season. This uncertainty can translate back into market volatility and overreactions on short term weather events. The variability in these numbers are an example of the associated uncertainty that lies underneath these predictions. For soybeans, the USDA still expected close-to-record yields (51.9 bu/acre), while the market perception (51.1 bu/acre) and Planet (50.4 bu/acre) predictions were more tempered.įigure 1c and 1d visualize how the USDA and Planet predictions historically compare to the actual final yields. The prediction for corn matched very well between the USDA (175.4 bu/acre), market perception (175.9 bu/acre) and Planet (176.0 bu/acre). In early August, the situation was quite different. However, as we already see with the Planet prediction, the market perception can vary from the reports. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released their latest September expectations for this season: 172.5 bushels per acre (bu/acre) for corn and 50.5 bu/acre for soybeans, significant drops compared to their August predictions. 1b), close to the final yields of 2021, these crops could provide some much needed relief for an already tense global market. With predicted yields of 177.6 bu/acre for corn (Fig. However, contrary to some national reports for agricultural yield, Planet’s Yield Forecasting solution sees some late-season improvements for corn and soybeans. With its variety of unusual weather events, 2022 has already proven to be a challenging year for crop growth in the US Midwest. Given these challenges, Planet’s Yield Forecasting solution offers a technically advanced method to help agriculturalists and economists be best prepared for the future. However, erratic weather patterns can make it difficult to make predictions, and reports can vary dramatically. Some recent reports have suggested that corn yields in the United States could be the lowest since drought-plagued 2012, and that corn quality could suffer as a result of hot and dry conditions. The United States is the world’s largest corn producer and second largest soybean grower, and news about production yields can impact global prices for the entire season. This harvest season, global eyes are watching the United States’ agricultural yield reports with anticipation after fields around the world have been challenged by extreme weather, drought, heat waves, and political turmoil.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |